Stockholm has announced a plan to ban all petrol and diesel cars within central Stockholm, allowing only pure electric and gas cars to navigate the city centre. The ban is set to be enforced within the next six years.
The decision comes in response to a report from RISE, the state’s research institute. The report highlighted the rapid replacement of the vehicle fleet in Stockholm County, where almost one million passenger cars are currently in circulation.
“In Stockholm, the cars are replaced quickly. In ten years, the vehicle fleet has been replaced. In 2030, 95 percent of the vehicle fleet in Stockholm will be rechargeable,” said traffic councillor Lars Strömgren.
However, Teknikensvarld recently clarified that the report fails to account for the fact that many cars registered in Stockholm County belong to large financial companies with headquarters in the city. These vehicles are part of leasing fleets but are driven throughout the country, creating an overestimation of the number of petrol and diesel cars that will be phased out.
Approximately 32 percent of the county’s passenger car registrations, or 300,000 cars, are currently registered to companies and financial institutions in Stockholm. However, CEO of Tjänstebilsförlaget Ronny Svensson argued that at least 100,000 of these vehicles are driven in other parts of Sweden.
Although this miscalculation leads to an inflated projection of petrol and diesel cars on Stockholm’s roads by 2030, the electric segment is expected to grow substantially, reaching around 50 percent in new additions by 2025.
While 2024 may not witness significant growth in the electric car segment, the subsequent years are anticipated to see a substantial increase. By 2030, it is estimated that if all 250,000 company cars become electric, Stockholm County will boast over 400,000 electric cars, constituting approximately 43 percent of the overall vehicle stock.
Battery Pack Prices Set to Hit Historic Low This Year
A shift towards environmental sustainability has gained further momentum with a reduction in the cost of battery packs. In its annual analysis of battery cells and packs, BloombergNEF has revealed that battery pack prices will hit their lowest this year.
The study, which has tracked prices since 2010, has shown a remarkable trend of declining costs. Starting at an average of $1,000 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2010, the price had dropped to just under $140 per kWh by the end of 2020.
While 2022 saw an increase in battery prices due to escalating raw material costs, particularly for lithium, the 2023 analysis paints a more optimistic picture. Battery packs are expected to average $139 per kWh, marking a historic low.
“The price decline this year is due to the significant expansion of production capacity throughout the value chain in combination with weaker demand than expected,” said Evelina Stoikou, the lead author of the report.
Analysts anticipate a substantial increase in annual battery production for electric cars and energy storage, reaching 950 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2023. This represents a significant 53 percent surge compared to the previous year, although still below manufacturers’ expectations.
One key factor contributing to the declining battery prices is the adoption of “cell-to-pack” technology by more manufacturers. This approach involves placing battery cells directly into the battery pack without individual modules, resulting in a larger proportion of the pack’s price being attributed to the cells. In 2023, the average price for battery cells is $89 per kWh.
In addition, the increasing use of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries is also influencing the market. LFP cells, which are cheaper than NMC cells, saw their prices drop below $100 per kWh for the first time this year.
The analysis also offers a glimpse into 2024, predicting further declines in raw material prices. With advancements in manufacturing methods, analysts project that the average price for an electric car battery pack in 2030 will plummet to $80 per kWh, signalling a positive trajectory for the electric vehicle industry.
EU, Bill Gates Invest SEK 700 Million in CO2 Battery Project
The European Union and former Microsoft CEO Bill Gates have allocated SEK 700 million to develop the world’s first carbon dioxide (CO2) battery. The investment was channelled through the Breakthrough Energy Catalyst initiated by Bill Gates and the European Investment Bank.
The project was spearheaded by engineers from the Italian company Energy Dome. It aims to transform energy storage technology by harnessing the unique properties of carbon dioxide.
The announcement was made during the COP28 conference, where it was revealed that construction of the CO2 battery will start next year. The funding from the EU and Bill Gates’ initiative signifies a significant step toward advancing sustainable and innovative energy solutions.
The inaugural CO2 battery will be situated outside Ottana on the Italian island of Sardinia. The facility is projected to boast the same storage capacity as traditional lithium-ion or lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries.
Despite requiring additional equipment for CO2 utilisation, carbon dioxide boasts a significantly higher energy density when calculated in volume. With an impressive energy density, one kilogram of pressurised liquid CO2 contains 66.7 kWh of electricity, comparable to a standard electric car battery.
The ingenious approach involves a thermodynamic system, where CO2 gas is compressed into a liquid state by pressurising and storing it at 70 bar. The system comprises a large-volume tank holding CO2 in gaseous form, akin to a tent in appearance.
From this bulk tank, the gas is directed to a compressor, where it undergoes compression using electricity. The resulting heat is stored in a heat exchanger, while the gas is transferred to pressurised tanks.
Upon release, the stored liquid CO2 is heated using the heat exchanger, transforming it into gas and releasing energy. This energy propels a steam turbine, generating new electricity. The CO2 that drives the turbine is then returned to the volume tank, creating a closed-loop system.
An additional advantage of this CO2 battery system is its lack of dependence on rare earth metals, contributing to its cost-effectiveness. Although the CO2 battery experiences higher energy losses than traditional batteries, with a 25 percent loss for every 100 kWh used, its overall cost is estimated to be 50-60 percent lower than that of a conventional battery.
While lithium-ion or LFP batteries typically achieve efficiencies of 90-93 percent, which may degrade over time, the CO2 battery project marks a significant step towards a more sustainable and economically viable energy storage solution.
Northvolt Shifts Investment Focus to Northvolt 3
Swedish battery developer and manufacturer Northvolt has altered its investment strategy, postponing projects in Sweden to channel resources into its new German facility, Northvolt 3. The plan is to have the German factory operational by 2026, dedicated to the production of electric car batteries.
The substantial total investment for Northvolt 3 amounts to SEK 50 billion, with the company having committed just over a billion so far, as reported by Der Spiegel.
“Securing the financing for Northvolt is an important step to get a large private investment that provides added value and jobs in a future industry. And it’s good that we could get an exception from the budget freeze,” said German Economy Minister Robert Habeck.
Despite initial concerns arising from a budget freeze, construction work at Northvolt’s Heide factory in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, can now proceed as planned. The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action has reassured the company that state subsidies totalling around eight billion kroner will be disbursed despite the budgetary constraints.
The substantial grant consists of 6.5 billion kroner from state funds and 1.5 billion kroner from the federal state. The financing is planned to be distributed over several years, offering a lifeline to Northvolt amid uncertainties surrounding the budget freeze.
Presently, the next crucial steps are the completion of the European Commission’s review of state aid and resolutions on the statutes of local communities.